In February 2026, Pew Charitable Trusts and ICF International Inc. published a white paper outlining policy scenarios and targets feasible for confronting plastic pollution in the United States. The United States produces some of the most plastics and plastic waste in the world (FPF reported) leading to considerable burden on the municipal waste system. “Single-use plastic packaging—such as beverage bottles, food wrappers, and takeout containers—are especially problematic due to their short lifespan and tendency to become aquatic or terrestrial pollution.” The whitepaper models Business as Usual (BAU), low target, and high target pathways of five policy levers to combat packaging waste.
The policy levers to reduce plastic packaging modeled in the white paper are:
- Material phaseout and design optimization: shift polystyrene (PS), expanded PS (EPS), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) to other polymers; reduce overall plastic packaging
- Reuse: increase market share of reusable beverage bottles and all other types of packaging
- Increase collection for recycling and improve sorting efficiency: increase collection rates while decreasing losses at the waste management facility
- Deposit return scheme: increase collection rates of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) beverage bottles
- All policies combined
According to Pew and ICF, “annual plastic packaging waste is projected to increase by 31% from 2025 to 2040, from 30 million to 39 million [US] tons per year.” It is unlikely that waste management infrastructure will be able to scale with increases to plastic waste production. The burden will fall on the taxpayer to fund local waste management infrastructure. However, the authors estimate “[t]he combination of all four policies aimed at addressing plastic packaging waste and pollution can reduce plastic waste generation by 29% and pollution by 35%.”
High reuse rates alone, a 30% market share for beverage bottles and 10% market share for all other packaging, “can reduce plastic packaging waste by up to 11% and pollution by 12% by 2040 relative to business as usual.” Reduction measures would not only lower the burden on municipal waste facilities (and thus taxpayer burden) but may also increase community resilience (FPF reported).
Reference
Pew Charitable Trusts (February 2026). “Modeling policy options for reducing plastic packaging waste and microplastics in the United States.” (pdf).
